Ray Dalio
@RayDalio
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Official account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker
Joined August 2009
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If you’re interested in learning what I’m offering you about principles and how the world is unfolding in light of them, you can find out here: https://t.co/6DkbGiZ9Dw
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It’s like fashion—the width of ties and the lengths of skirts. When there is great popularity of one extreme, one should expect that it won't be too long before there will be a comparable move in the opposite direction. https://t.co/648QrlGIeY https://t.co/BuA52wojLr
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People typically try to prove that they have the answer even when they don’t. https://t.co/LfZHsqiG0q
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They eventually cause adaptations that made the whole stronger, though they typically change who was on top and the prevailing world order. To read more, see: https://t.co/XldkOSqrHx (3/3)
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These bad periods get rid of weaknesses and excesses, such as too much debt, and return the fundamentals to a sounder footing, albeit painfully. (2/3)
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The bad periods of destruction and restructuring via depression, revolution, and war, which largely tear down the old system and set the stage for the emergence of a new system, typically take about 10 to 20 years, though variations in the range can be much larger. (1/3) https://t.co/WajvApqcRr
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Watch out for people who argue against something whenever they can find something—anything— wrong with it, without properly weighing all the pluses and minuses. Such people tend to be poor decision makers. https://t.co/ljxhbdxQUj
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You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off. https://t.co/On16RQiIwS
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Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision being the one with the highest expected value.
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Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. https://t.co/Mpk5fIDAsn
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If they refuse to slip into the subordinate position, there will be fighting and the painful defeat of the weaker power. That is what makes transitions of power so painful.
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Over time evolution will make it clear who has what power, so if those with less power know that they have less power, they should slip into the subordinate position so the power and position change takes place without fighting.
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If there are questions about who has what power, there will be a conflict to resolve that. Ideally that happens without a hot war, but when it is not clear and it is important it generally isn’t resolved peacefully. https://t.co/Xa9dKmRfJt
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The greatest influence you can have over intelligent people--and the greatest influence they will have on you--comes from constantly getting in sync about what is true and what is best so that you all want the same things.
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This hurts everyone in the long run. If you give too many orders, people will likely resent them, and when you aren't looking, defy them.
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Authoritarian managers don't develop their subordinates, which means those who report to them stay dependent.
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If you want to be followed, either for egotistical reasons or because you believe it more expedient to operate that way, you will pay a heavy price in the long run. When you are the only one thinking, the results will suffer. https://t.co/7nJVXbpptw
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These reasons are important for policy makers to understand in order to achieve the best possible outcomes for their countries, and for investors and companies to understand in order to determine where the best long-term investments are https://t.co/W0LgxK1tbW (3/3)
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However, it has risen at different rates for different people, though always for the same reasons—because of the quality of people’s education, inventiveness, work ethic, and economic systems to turn ideas into output. (2/3)
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