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Nate Cohn Profile
Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

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I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

New York, NY
Joined January 2012
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@maggieNYT
Maggie Haberman
17 hours ago
Sounds just like how Trump talks https://t.co/rvnCj6JkFI
@MacFarlaneNews
Scott MacFarlane
17 hours ago
!!! Per former Trump Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, Trump told him DC National Guard *should* be activated as requested by DC mayor Muriel Bowser..... Trump said, "Do whatever is necessary to protect the demonstrators, executing their constitutionally protected rights"
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@Neil_Irwin
Neil Irwin
2 days ago
This is a good frame. https://t.co/2fzQoBaIWU
@JWMason1
JW Mason
2 days ago
If we treat the price increases that accompany any acceleration of demand as a crisis that has to be met with interest rate hikes until we are poor enough to buy no more than the economy can currently produce, we'll never see the rising capacity that could have met that demand.
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@dhopkins1776
Dan Hopkins
7 days ago
Here's a new #polisciresearch working paper & a 🧵. We all know about 1/6 and the threat to American democracy that crystalized that day. Were there *changes* in American public opinion in the years before that foreshadowed the threat? Not really. https://t.co/YWID4MK9Y2 https://t.co/GBfYRT0yU2
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@otis_reid
Otis Reid
8 days ago
Good article about disbelief being at the root of belief in conspiracy theories from @TimHarford — did not know this bit before! https://t.co/1UlLs43STg https://t.co/Be5u9nfQZ6
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@gebeloffnyt
Robert Gebeloff
8 days ago
1) New York losing a House seat by 89 people — that’s one exciting Census story. But for demographers, the bigger story was that New York came that close at all. I explored how this happened in a story today for @upshotnyt https://t.co/3Ndd7YncTp
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
(in general, Obama's ability to mobilize Black voters was way more useful for Democrats than demographic change. Black voters are concentrated in many key states and far more Democratic)
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
He would win with Obama 08/12 black turnout, but he would not win with even 2020 demographics (and his actual turnout rate among black v white voters) https://t.co/u6s43K4192
@Ser_Foxalot
Eric Fox
8 days ago
@Nate_Cohn I thought Kerry ‘04 would have won on a later more diverse map?
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
(That's because Obama's two big strengths were high black turnout and strength among white northerners, especially in the classic Midwestern battleground states where there's been little demographic change)
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
I should also note that Obama '12--which is often attributed to racial demographic change--can hold all the way back into the 1980s
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
In other words, Biden's quite modest gains among white voters since '16 did about as much for his chances as decades of demographic shifts
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
If you start turning back the demographic clock, Biden quickly loses AZ/GA/NV and eventually loses PA/WI once you push the racial composition of the nation back a couple of decades. But even if you go back to the '80s, he's still winning more electoral votes than Clinton
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
There are two elections that were at least arguably decided by racial demographics, at least judged over a multi-decadal period: Bush '00 and Biden '20. Obviously these were already exceptionally close; most anything can decide these races
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
Here's a somewhat surprising estimate for you, based on census, exit poll and ANES data: Trump '16, Bush '04, Bush '88/84, Reagan 80 all had enough support to prevail if they had faced an electorate as diverse as it was in 2020.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
That second point--the R strength among nonwhite voters in red states like TX/FL--has a blue state corollary: D strength among nonwhite voters in blue states, which adds to the Dem E.C. challenge by padding Dem margins in IL/CA/NY/CT/NJ etc. without adding electoral votes
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
8 days ago
--Most growth is among non-Black groups of nonwhite voters, who back Ds more modestly --Rs do fairly well among those groups in the red states that Ds need to flip --Ds made big, overlooked gains among white voters in many states where diversity might have otherwise been key
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@jmartNYT
Jonathan Martin
8 days ago
After a Brown prof said families can take “kids on trips and see friends and relatives this summer, a reader sent an email to her supervisors at the university suggesting that Oster be promoted to a leadership role in the field of ‘genocide encouragement’” https://t.co/NwMl938tjC
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
13 days ago
I should note that most people who have thought hard about this, and I'd put myself in that category, believe that the CPS overestimates the college educated share of the electorate (and nonwhite turnout, as well)
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
13 days ago
In 2016, Masscahusetts became the first state where four-year college graduates represented a majority of the presidential electorate. In 2020, it's joined by New York, Colorado and Maryland, with Vermont, New Jersey and Connecticut close behind at 48% or more
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