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Nate Cohn Profile
Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

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chief political analyst, @nytimes . writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT . polling and needling. PNW expat.

Washington, DC
Joined January 2012
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@ShaneGoldmacher
Shane Goldmacher
15 hours ago
This is, by far, the most Trump has spent on another politician.
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Nate Cohn Retweeted
@ShaneGoldmacher
Shane Goldmacher
15 hours ago
NEWS: Trump transferred $2 million to various pro-David Perdue and anti-Brian Kemp efforts in Georgia, four times as much as the $500,000 that has previously been disclosed, per a person familiar.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
2 days ago
The same thing can be said for the 'democracy' issue: it may or may not affect the generic ballot, but I am quite open to the idea that individual stop-the-steal-type GOP candidates could be materially punished for it in certain states
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
2 days ago
One additional point: the effect on individual races may prove to be more important than its effect on the national political environment, if abortion becomes especially salient in places due to extreme candidates or state policy stakes
@NateSilver538
Nate Silver
2 days ago
Seeing a lot of this sort of sentiment. "Well, there's been no big poll shift after the Roe leak, which means no big effect on public opinion". But I think it's misguided for a couple of reasons. 🧡
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
2 days ago
The Times/Siena polls were often weighted on party x primary, but they were as bad as everyone else's polls. And one thing that seemed to help other polls--weighting on self-reported 2016 vote--would have pushed us even farther toward Biden
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
2 days ago
One challenge in the post-election polling autopsy world: there's a lot of idiosyncratic data. What works on one team's data may not work on another
@rp_griffin
Robert Griffin
8 days ago
#AAPOR ICYMI @johnmsides and I examined major explanations for polling error in 2020. The big takeaway: Evidence that highly engaged Democrats were a big contributor to the problem in 2020. Reweighting by in-cylce measures of participation substantially reduced error.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
Oz has steadily gained as Election Day votes get counted, but one interestingly McCormick still narrowly leads in the still-incomplete Election Day count
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
He's seen enough Madison Cawthorn
@Redistrict
Dave Wasserman
3 days ago
I've seen enough: Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) has lost renomination to state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R) in the #NC11 GOP primary.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
Doesn't mean he can't pull it off, but he'll need these precincts to be among his very best of the night. And there are still five precincts from Henderson County, where he's losing the Election Day vote.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
Here's one simple way to look at it: in Cawthorn's best county, he won the seven Election Day precincts by 406 votes. There are 24 precincts left, so matching that performance exactly would yield 1392 votes. He's down 1533 votes.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
Madison Cawthorn's path to victory is starting to look awfully narrow. Most of the remaining precincts are on his turf--and he'll win them big--but based on the average votes per precinct so far, he would probably need to win them by >30 pts. He isn't doing that anywhere
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
One not-entirely-surprising pattern so far this primary season: Trump-backed candidates faring best on Election Day; moderates faring well in the early vote. PA is an especially clear case right now. All of the GOP vote you see is mail. It's like looking at a different universe.
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
The first seven Election Day precincts offer some fragmentary but real hope for Madison Cawthorn, who still trails by 11 points in the count of mainly early votes. He's faring 14 points better in the Election Day vote than he did in the early vote from the same counties
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@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn
3 days ago
Madison Cawthorn trails by 11 points among early voters in the NC-11 primary, with nearly all counties reporting their early vote. Election Day votes, of course, may differ.
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