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Kjetil Tronvoll Profile
Kjetil Tronvoll

@KjetilTronvoll

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Professor of peace/conflict studies at Oslo New University College and Director of Oslo Analytica: Political anthropologist, Africa analyst, conflict advisor

Joined December 2011
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a year ago
Based on 30 years of research, I have earlier this year warned that there has seldom been a clearer case of a coming violent #conflict than the ongoing altercation between #TPLF #Tigray and #PP #Ethiopia #Federal gov., a dynamic in the making since the dissolution of #EPRDF.
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Kjetil Tronvoll Retweeted
@GebremeskelGeb
Gebremeskel Gebremariam
22 hours ago
1/n THREAD: #Tigrayan students of Jigjiga University facing #EthnicProfiling & demonisation, are extremely starved, and without a shelter! Yesterday, I got a voice message from an Ethiopian [non-#Tigrayan] youth from Jigjiga, Somali region. @LaetitiaBader @ICRC @hrw @amnesty
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
7/7: But it will also pose great challenges to #AU #UN IC on how to relate to the de facto political gov in #Ethiopia controllings its territory, and a redundant, but possibly de jure, government in exile.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
6/7: Such a scenario will be troublesome for the new powerholders in #Ethiopia, who will no matter the gov. composition/inclusiveness be characterized as a “unconstitutional change of gov.” / coup, and hence face problems of recognition.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
5/7: Such a strategy rests on z premise that #TDF & #OLA must be cast as “alien” &“imperialist” forces to #Ethiopia, hence sovereignty should rest with z “exiled” #AbyiAhmed gov. (Remember #Somalia parallel when #ICU took Mogadishu, sovereignty was vested in gov housed in Nairobi
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
4/7: If (or rather when) #TDF & #OLA take control of #Addis, #AbiyAhmed can claim that he still represents the “legitimate” gov of #Ethiopia, wherever he is in hiding or if he goes in exile. The old maxim “those who control the capital, holds the sovereignty” will be challenged.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
3/7: #Ethiopia gov has thus called for #PanAfrican solidarity & support for z #war against imperialist forces, aligning its war on #TDF & #OLA with z anti-colonial liberation wars. By this #AbiyAhmed wants pay-back for Ethiopia’s historical support for anti-colonialist struggles.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
2/7: Over the past weeks, #Ethiopia gov has shifted its propaganda narrative on the #war on Tigray from being against the “junta / domestic terrorist”, to be against “imperial forces”; claiming #TDF & #OLA is a proxy for #US and #Western countries.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
a day ago
THREAD 1/7: Is #AbiyAhmed preparing to establish a «legitimate #Ethiopia government in exile”? The PM left the capital ostensibly to lead the war on #TDF #Tigray & #OLA #Oromo from the frontlines. Whether he is on the frontlines or in hiding, no one knows.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
2 days ago
While #Ethiopia #war is raging & 1000s of girls/women have been raped in #Tigray & elsewhere by combattants, what does #EU / @EUinEthiopia think is an appropriate response - coctail party against #genderbasedviolence #GBV! This is beyond distasteful, even for thirsty diplomats.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
2 days ago
#Ethiopia has expelled 4 diplomats from #Ireland 🇮🇪, due to the principal stand Irleand has pursued on the #warcrimes committed & #humanitarian access to #Tigray in #UNSC. Irish people should be proud of its government’s work to promote peace and justice.
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Kjetil Tronvoll Retweeted
@OUPPolitics
Oxford Politics
3 days ago
Following @ASANewsOnline’s 64th annual meeting, explore a collection of leading research on African land and land resources from @AfrAfJournal. Freely available here:
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
3 days ago
Suprisingly weak press brief by #US Special Envoy #Feltman on #Ethiopia war on #TDF #Tigray. Lack of empirical knowledge, void of analytical reflections, and detached the complex political context. Counter-productive to his mission; better keep quiet.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
3 days ago
Addendum: The most likely destiny of #AbiyAhmed, however, might be that he follows in the footsteps of another «wannabe Emperor», col. Mengistu Hailemariam, and flees #Ethiopia on the last plane out avoid being captured by #Tigray forces #TDF.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
3 days ago
2/2: Or will #AbiyAhmed be z new Menelik II who defeated Italian colonial army at battel of #Adwa in 1896, as he characterize #TDF as an imperialist agent? He should keep in mind though, that z frontline commander at Adwa was #RasAlula from #Tigray, & there are no Alula in #ENDF.
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@KjetilTronvoll
Kjetil Tronvoll
3 days ago
1/2: #AbiyAhmed is going to z warfront today to "lead" z fight against advancing #Tigray #TDF. As he claims to be "7th King of #Ethiopia", will he meet z destiny of Yohannes IV (killed in action), of Tewodros II (suicide to avoid capture), or Haile Selassie I (arrest/execution)?
@AbiyAhmedAli
Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹
4 days ago
“ኢትዮጵያ” የሚለውን የነጻነት ስም የማስጠበቅ የታሪክ አደራ አለብን!
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