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@DanWiserMtnView

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40+ years in finance - CPA & markets; swing trader/investor. All opinions my own - not invest advice. Enjoy hiking in natl parks - Bear Lake at RMNP.

Midwest, USA
Joined November 2019
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
2 years ago
Price is the best indicator.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
3 days ago
Was concerned below as $SPX RSI(5) ema 10 turned down >70; now ema 10 trying to turn up from low 30s. PMO also trying to turn. Next, need price > ema 8 & ema 8 to turn up...Fri was nice, but work still ahead for IT...day by day.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
a month ago
When $SPX RSI (5) 10 ma turns down from > 70, mkt often pulls back. Price 8/21 ema staying positive would limit pullback.
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@Norseman1
The Real Norseman1
4 days ago
Why a 90UVOL MUST come in. Why I’ve been saying yesterday I did not like 3855 as it’s getting too far away from 5/9’s DVOL close of 3991.24. $SPX MUST close above it today on 80+UVOL minimum and 12/27,..2018 style gut check for Monday potential. I don’t like 90’s retraced much
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
5 days ago
Fwiw, since 1986 I've tracked a measure of overstretched values in each direction. Scale is 0 - 30 & avg is 16.57. Not a signal - just gives sense of levels: ATH - 26.19 5/16/95 ATL - 4.49 9/21/01 Now- 9.63 So, not a historic washout...hoping we don't get there.
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@mark_ungewitter
Mark Ungewitter
6 days ago
SPX 200-day low suggests cyclical bear market. Could end today or decline much further – no one knows. Favoring defense until a durable bottom is confirmed via breadth thrust or price momentum.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
8 days ago
Still think waiting for strong buying to return (back to back 80%+ up vol days or one 90%+) makes sense for most. I use a system for timing bounces I like, but it can have some interim DDs many can't stomach-getting shaken out at just the wrong time sure hurts.
@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
11 days ago
Early look @ $SPX weekly-don't like (1) RSI 5 < 30; (2) neg MACD < 0; (3) price < falling 10 & 20 wma. But, can today's DVOL > 90% bring a turn?...tbd. Mkt can fall further before a turn after possible washout volume (10/26/20), so need to see eager buying return first imo.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
9 days ago
Spike in AAII Bears along w/spike in $CPCE have come at recent significant $SPX lows (Dec '18 & Mar '20). Can always be different this time...
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
10 days ago
Great point. We'll see many predictions of where price will bottom, but waiting for strong, sustained buying to return is a sound IT strategy imo.
@CMTRandazzo
Vincent Randazzo CMT
12 days ago
@WalterDeemer Today's 93.5% downside volume is the heaviest down volume day since 6/11/20 (98.4%). 90% Downside Days often beget further heavy selling until the buyers respond. Hiding places are finally starting to get raided.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
11 days ago
Early look @ $SPX weekly-don't like (1) RSI 5 < 30; (2) neg MACD < 0; (3) price < falling 10 & 20 wma. But, can today's DVOL > 90% bring a turn?...tbd. Mkt can fall further before a turn after possible washout volume (10/26/20), so need to see eager buying return first imo.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
12 days ago
Important point to keep in mind.
@mnkahn
Michael Kahn, CMT
12 days ago
@WalterDeemer Obviously, I cannot give away the store but this is the first 90% Downside Day since November. An isolated 90% Down doesn't tell us much more than volatility in a downtrend at this point.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
12 days ago
Agree - haven't had back to back 80+ days yet in 2022.
@WalterDeemer
Walter Deemer
13 days ago
Today was an 88% upside day (87.9%); biggest upside day since the 89.5% day July 20. But -- since yesterday was a 73% upside day need another 80-plus upside day tomorrow for today to have any significance.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
14 days ago
*HL...edit please.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
14 days ago
$SPX 8 ema nearly straight down for past mth. Bulls need it to flatten & then turn up; ideally then crossing > 21 ema. Glad $SPX AD line is making a HH, but want to see $NYSE do the same.
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@DanWiserMtnView
Mountain View Trading
16 days ago
Agree. Special emphasis to me on #4 .
@RoyLMattox
Roy Mattox
16 days ago
5 Foolhardy Myths Ole Wall Perpetuates 1. Don't Sell; it will always come back 2. It's not a loss until you sell 3. Average down; it's cheaper 4.Nobody can time the market 5. Diversification protects you
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